Sustainable governance of the agriculture and the Baltic Sea — Agricultural reforms, food production and curbed eutrophication

In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o Agricultural production and nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea are likely to increase following Poland's and the Baltic States' entrance into the EU. According to HELCOM these trends will be highly dependent on the agricultural policies of the EU. The expansion of the EU can be seen as a window of opportunity where agricultural policy could improve the Baltic Sea environment. Longstanding initiatives with local organic food systems and Ecological Recycling Agriculture (ERA) in the eight EU-countries in the Baltic Sea drainage area were evaluated during 2001–2004. The empirical results were scaled up to calculate environmental impact and food production for three different scenarios. In one scenario the Baltic Countries and Poland convert their agriculture following the average Swedish production. This resulted in 58% increase of nitrogen and 18% increase in phosphorus surplus, a corresponding increase in the load to the Baltic Sea and increased food production. In two other scenarios agriculture production in the whole Baltic Sea drainage area converts to ERA. This halved the nitrogen surplus from agriculture and eliminated the surplus of phosphorus. In these scenarios food production would decrease or remain stable depending on strategy chosen. Eutrophication is a major problem in the Baltic Sea. Since the 1900s, the Baltic Sea has changed from an oligotrophic clear-water sea into a eutrophic marine environment (HELCOM, 2007), a so called regime shift (Folke, 2006). The visible part of the eutrophication is the increase in algae. A more serious effect is the decrease in dissolved oxygen and the spreading of dead zones in coastal marine waters (Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008). Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus loads coming from land-based sources, primarily agriculture, are the main causes of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea (HELCOM, 2004a). Although some researchers focus more on phosphorus (e.g. Boesch et al., 2006) there is today, according to The Swedish Environmental Advisory Council (2005), " broad agreement that both phosphorus and nitrogen inputs should be reduced to alleviate eutrophication ". Based on farm nutrient balance studies in Sweden and Finland Granstedt (2000) concluded that the main reason …